Over the last few years you might have caught wind of people talking about reduced energy output from the sun.
This is nothing new. Many of you know that the sun has an approximately 11 year cycle that can be tracked by sunspots. During the 11 year cycle, the energy emitted from the sun varies by a tiny amount. Once in a great while, the sun can become stuck in a lower energy state, with very few sunspots for decades. One of the most famous periods like this is the Maunder Minimum and it is believed to be one of the primary forces that created the “Little Ice Age”.
Sunspot history over the last 4 centuries.
Are we entering another Maunder Minimum? Depending upon who you talk to, the current lower energy state of the sun is going to bring another ice age, or it won’t really affect us at all.
A recent study in Astrophysical Journal Letters has claimed that a prolonged state of lower energy from the sun is likely. I could not get access to the paper, so I am unsure how likely the scenario is, but the popular press article makes it seem like a near certainty.
Does this mean we don’t have to worry about anthropogenic global warming (AGW)? Absolutely not!
It is expected this potential new Maunder Minimum would have an effect on the average global temperature of only a few tenths of a degree. Is it possible the effect could be more? Sure. If there are some feedback processes that amplify the effects of the reduced energy from the sun, processes that cannot currently be foreseen, then the temperature could drop a bit more.
An example of sunspots on the surface of the sun.
However, even if the temperature declined a couple of degrees, it is still incredibly important to clean up our act. Outside of any concerns from a warmer planet, pollution and environmental degradation are still big problems. It should be full steam ahead for clean energy and efficient technology.
In the end, it will be very interesting to see if a new “Maunder Minimum” develops. Could it mean that ice in the arctic will not decrease as rapidly? Will Europe have a few more colder-than-normal winters, like in the 17th century? Even a small brake on the recent and projected warming would be a good thing.
Meteorologist Justin Loew
